Flamurtari 2–1 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

Flamurtari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Luzi 2008

11/22/2023

1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Flamurtari57%

×Draw25%

Luzi 200819%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamurtariExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.83

Flamurtari

1.64

Luzi 2008

0.83

Flamurtari creates 98% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

0.70

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Flamurtari

1.57

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

Flamurtari

0.70

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw

81%

Flamurtari or Luzi 2008

75%

Draw or Luzi 2008

43%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+

31%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals

81%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

49%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

23%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

56%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

20%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

75%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Flamurtari scores more

57%

level

25%

Luzi 2008 scores more

19%

Flamurtari at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff