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Flamurtari vs Feronikeli — Superliga 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
1 – 0
Feronikeli
Feronikeli
7/18/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31Stadiumi i Flamurtarit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamurtari51%
×Draw24%
Feronikeli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.73
Feronikeli
1.14

Flamurtari creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 88 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.56
Feronikeli
0.89

allows per match

Flamurtari
1.38
Feronikeli
1.89

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Feronikeli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Feronikeli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
75%
Flamurtari or Feronikeli
76%
Draw or Feronikeli
49%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
28%
Feronikeli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
82%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
52%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
25%
Feronikeli 1+ goals
68%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
32%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
67%
Feronikeli (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Feronikeli away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.56 + Feronikeli defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Feronikeli attack 0.89 + Flamurtari defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Flamurtari scores more
51%
level
24%
Feronikeli scores more
25%

Flamurtari at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Flamurtari 1–0 Feronikeli

Flamurtari beat Feronikeli 1-0 in Superliga on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i Flamurtarit in Priština.