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Flamurtari vs Bylis — Superliga 2018

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bylis
Bylis
1/18/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 20Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Flamurtari44%
×Draw26%
Bylis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.45
Bylis
1.15

Flamurtari creates 26% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 90 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.30
Bylis
0.91

allows per match

Flamurtari
1.39
Bylis
1.60

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Bylis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
70%
Flamurtari or Bylis
74%
Draw or Bylis
56%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
21%
Bylis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
77%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
42%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
18%
Bylis 1+ goals
68%
Bylis 2+ goals
32%
Bylis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
59%
Bylis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Bylis away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.60 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.30 + Bylis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bylis attack 0.91 + Flamurtari defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flamurtari scores more
44%
level
26%
Bylis scores more
30%

Flamurtari at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Bylis

Flamurtari beat Bylis 3-0 in Superliga on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari.