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Flamurtari vs Ballkani — Superliga 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
0 – 0
Ballkani
Ballkani
6/12/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 24Stadiumi i Flamurtarit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamurtari33%
×Draw26%
Ballkani41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.27
Ballkani
1.43

Ballkani creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 124 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.56
Ballkani
1.48

allows per match

Flamurtari
1.38
Ballkani
0.99

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Ballkani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Ballkani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
59%
Flamurtari or Ballkani
74%
Draw or Ballkani
67%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
14%
Ballkani wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
72%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
36%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
14%
Ballkani 1+ goals
76%
Ballkani 2+ goals
42%
Ballkani 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
45%
Ballkani (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Ballkani away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.56 + Ballkani defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ballkani attack 1.48 + Flamurtari defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Flamurtari scores more
33%
level
26%
Ballkani scores more
41%

Ballkani at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Ballkani

Flamurtari and Ballkani drew 0-0 in Superliga on June 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i Flamurtarit in Priština.