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Flamurtari vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
3/31/20241st Division1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Flamurtari48%
×Draw28%
Apolonia Fier24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.37
Apolonia Fier
0.88

Flamurtari creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Flamurtari
0.70
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
76%
Flamurtari or Apolonia Fier
72%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
52%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
23%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
75%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
40%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
16%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
59%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
22%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
67%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Flamurtari scores more
48%
level
28%
Apolonia Fier scores more
24%

Flamurtari at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Apolonia Fier

Flamurtari and Apolonia Fier drew 0-0 in 1st Division on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.