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Flaminia vs Gladiator — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Flaminia
Flaminia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gladiator
Gladiator
9/24/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Turiddu Madami

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Flaminia41%
×Draw26%
Gladiator32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flaminia
1.39
Gladiator
1.19

Flaminia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Flaminia
1.15
Gladiator
1.47

allows per match

Flaminia
0.91
Gladiator
1.62

finishing

Flaminia+0.00on par
Gladiator+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flaminia ↓

Gladiator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Flaminia or draw
68%
Flaminia or Gladiator
74%
Draw or Gladiator
59%

Winning margin

Flaminia wins by 2+
19%
Gladiator wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Flaminia 1+ goals
75%
Flaminia 2+ goals
40%
Flaminia 3+ goals
16%
Gladiator 1+ goals
70%
Gladiator 2+ goals
33%
Gladiator 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flaminia (draw refunded)
56%
Gladiator (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flaminia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Gladiator away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flaminia attack 1.15 + Gladiator defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gladiator attack 1.47 + Flaminia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Flaminia scores more
41%
level
26%
Gladiator scores more
32%

Flaminia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flaminia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flaminia vs Gladiator

Flaminia and Gladiator drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Turiddu Madami in Civita Castellana.