Flamingo United 1–9 JaPS O35: Result & Stats

Flamingo United

1 – 9

JaPS O35

2/19/2023

Suomen Cup · Preliminary RoundMukkulan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flamingo United3%

×Draw4%

JaPS O3593%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamingo UnitedExpected goals in this matchJaPS O35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

8.00

Flamingo United

1.67

JaPS O35

8.00

JaPS O35 creates 379% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

10.00

6.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Flamingo United

2.67

JaPS O35

10.00

allows per match

Flamingo United

6.00

JaPS O35

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamingo United+0.00on par

JaPS O35+0.00on par

Total goals

Over99
Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamingo United ↓

JaPS O35 →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–32%

0–43%

1–00%

1–10%

1–21%

1–33%

1–46%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–45%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (6%) · grid covers 31% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

99%1%3.5

96%4%4.5

88%12%

Double chance

Flamingo United or draw

Flamingo United or JaPS O35

96%

Draw or JaPS O35

97%

Winning margin

Flamingo United wins by 2+

JaPS O35 wins by 2+

84%

Team goals

Flamingo United 1+ goals

81%

Flamingo United 2+ goals

50%

Flamingo United 3+ goals

23%

JaPS O35 1+ goals

100%

JaPS O35 2+ goals

99%

JaPS O35 3+ goals

96%

Draw no bet

Flamingo United (draw refunded)

JaPS O35 (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flamingo United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

JaPS O35 away — creates 10.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flamingo United attack 2.67 + JaPS O35 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

JaPS O35 attack 10.00 + Flamingo United defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 8.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 93%?"

Flamingo United scores more

level

JaPS O35 scores more

93%

JaPS O35 at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "JaPS O35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff