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Flamengo W vs Vitória PE W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Flamengo W
Flamengo W
FT
10 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
3/23/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Estádio de Los Lários (Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Flamengo W89%
×Draw8%
Vitória PE W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo W
3.47
Vitória PE W
0.58

Flamengo W creates 498% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

creates per match

Flamengo W
2.32
Vitória PE W
0.13

allows per match

Flamengo W
1.04
Vitória PE W
4.63

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par
Vitória PE W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Vitória PE W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw
97%
Flamengo W or Vitória PE W
92%
Draw or Vitória PE W
11%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+
73%
Vitória PE W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals
97%
Flamengo W 2+ goals
85%
Flamengo W 3+ goals
65%
Vitória PE W 1+ goals
44%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
12%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)
96%
Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Vitória PE W away — creates 0.13, concedes 4.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Vitória PE W defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.47

Vitória PE W attack 0.13 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Flamengo W scores more
89%
level
8%
Vitória PE W scores more
3%

Flamengo W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Flamengo W 10–0 Vitória PE W

Flamengo W beat Vitória PE W 10-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio de Los Lários (Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro).