Flamengo W 6–0 Sport Recife W: Result & Stats

Flamengo W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sport Recife W

5/1/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio José Bastos Padilha (Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Flamengo W74%

×Draw15%

Sport Recife W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo WExpected goals in this matchSport Recife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.64

0.91

Flamengo W

2.64

Sport Recife W

0.91

Flamengo W creates 190% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

2.32

creates per match

0.78

1.04

allows per match

2.96

creates per match

Flamengo W

2.32

Sport Recife W

0.78

allows per match

Flamengo W

1.04

Sport Recife W

2.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Sport Recife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw

89%

Flamengo W or Sport Recife W

85%

Draw or Sport Recife W

26%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+

52%

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals

93%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

74%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

48%

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

60%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

87%

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.64

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Flamengo W scores more

74%

level

15%

Sport Recife W scores more

11%

Flamengo W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff