Flamengo W 4–1 Real Brasília W: Result & Stats

Flamengo W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Brasília W

3/28/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Flamengo W66%

×Draw19%

Real Brasília W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.93

Flamengo W

2.20

Real Brasília W

0.93

Flamengo W creates 137% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 40 away

2.32

creates per match

0.82

1.04

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Flamengo W

2.32

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

Flamengo W

1.04

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw

85%

Flamengo W or Real Brasília W

81%

Draw or Real Brasília W

34%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+

42%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals

89%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

64%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

37%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

61%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

24%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

82%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.20

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Flamengo W scores more

66%

level

19%

Real Brasília W scores more

15%

Flamengo W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo W vs Real Brasília W

Flamengo W beat Real Brasília W 4-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Flamengo W vs Real Brasília W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Flamengo W vs Real Brasília W