Flamengo W 5–0 Foz-Athletico W: Result & Stats

Flamengo W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Foz-Athletico W

7/18/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio José Bastos Padilha (Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Flamengo W69%

×Draw19%

Foz-Athletico W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo WExpected goals in this matchFoz-Athletico W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.71

Flamengo W

2.10

Foz-Athletico W

0.71

Flamengo W creates 196% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

2.32

creates per match

0.38

1.04

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Flamengo W

2.32

Foz-Athletico W

0.38

allows per match

Flamengo W

1.04

Foz-Athletico W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Foz-Athletico W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Foz-Athletico W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw

89%

Flamengo W or Foz-Athletico W

81%

Draw or Foz-Athletico W

31%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+

45%

Foz-Athletico W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals

88%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

62%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

35%

Foz-Athletico W 1+ goals

51%

Foz-Athletico W 2+ goals

16%

Foz-Athletico W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

86%

Foz-Athletico W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Foz-Athletico W away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Foz-Athletico W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

Foz-Athletico W attack 0.38 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Flamengo W scores more

69%

level

19%

Foz-Athletico W scores more

11%

Flamengo W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff