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Flamengo W vs Cruzeiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Flamengo W
Flamengo W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro W
Cruzeiro W
3/21/2026Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · Round 4Estadio Luso Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Flamengo W50%
×Draw23%
Cruzeiro W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo W
1.87
Cruzeiro W
1.34

Flamengo W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

creates per match

Flamengo W
2.32
Cruzeiro W
1.65

allows per match

Flamengo W
1.04
Cruzeiro W
1.42

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par
Cruzeiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Cruzeiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw
72%
Flamengo W or Cruzeiro W
77%
Draw or Cruzeiro W
50%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+
28%
Cruzeiro W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals
85%
Flamengo W 2+ goals
56%
Flamengo W 3+ goals
29%
Cruzeiro W 1+ goals
74%
Cruzeiro W 2+ goals
39%
Cruzeiro W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)
64%
Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Cruzeiro W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.87

Cruzeiro W attack 1.65 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flamengo W scores more
50%
level
23%
Cruzeiro W scores more
28%

Flamengo W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Flamengo W 1–1 Cruzeiro W

Flamengo W and Cruzeiro W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Luso Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro.