Flamengo W 1–0 Athletico Paranaense W

Flamengo W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Athletico Paranaense W

S. Jaimes 90'

3/31/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Flamengo W67%

×Draw19%

Athletico Paranaense W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo WExpected goals in this matchAthletico Paranaense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.90

Flamengo W

2.22

Athletico Paranaense W

0.90

Flamengo W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

2.32

creates per match

0.75

1.04

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Flamengo W

2.32

Athletico Paranaense W

0.75

allows per match

Flamengo W

1.04

Athletico Paranaense W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo W ↓

Athletico Paranaense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Flamengo W or draw

86%

Flamengo W or Athletico Paranaense W

81%

Draw or Athletico Paranaense W

33%

Winning margin

Flamengo W wins by 2+

43%

Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Flamengo W 1+ goals

89%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

65%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

38%

Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals

59%

Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals

23%

Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

83%

Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Athletico Paranaense W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo W attack 2.32 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.22

Athletico Paranaense W attack 0.75 + Flamengo W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Flamengo W scores more

67%

level

19%

Athletico Paranaense W scores more

14%

Flamengo W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Flamengo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Daiane← Cris

46'

Rafinha← Joyce

62'

Kaylaine Júnior← Thaisa

67'

Ellen← Rafinha

75'

Iasmyn Vitória← Nathália

81'

Gica← Thaís Regina

90+6'

Gisseli← Darlene

90+6'

Rayanne← S. Jaimes

90+1'

Duda← Thayslane

90+1'

Giovanna← Lilian

90'

S. Jaimes

Flamengo

Athletico

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jaimes

Manager: Luís Andrade

46'▲Daiane←▼Cris

62'▲Kaylaine Júnior←▼Thaisa

81'▲Gica←▼Thaís Regina

90+6'▲Gisseli←▼Darlene

90+6'▲Rayanne←▼S. Jaimes

Flamengo W substitutes

DaianeJúniorGicaGisseliRayanneCidaAlvesLeidianePitbullTuca

Manager: Brenno

46'▲Rafinha←▼Joyce

67'▲Ellen←▼Rafinha

75'▲Iasmyn Vitória←▼Nathália

90+1'▲Duda←▼Thayslane

90+1'▲Giovanna←▼Lilian

Athletico Paranaense W substitutes

RafinhaEllenVitóriaDudaGiovannaRenatinhaTosti

Match Recap: Flamengo W vs Athletico Paranaense W

Flamengo W beat Athletico Paranaense W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 31, 2023.

Goals: S. Jaimes (90').

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Flamengo W vs Athletico Paranaense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Flamengo W vs Athletico Paranaense W