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Flamengo vs San José — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Flamengo
Flamengo
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
San José
San José
4/12/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flamengo92%
×Draw6%
San José2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
3.50
San José
0.38

Flamengo creates 821% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 4 away

creates per match

Flamengo
2.50
San José
0.25

allows per match

Flamengo
0.50
San José
4.50

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
98%
Flamengo or San José
94%
Draw or San José
8%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
78%
San José wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
97%
Flamengo 2+ goals
85%
Flamengo 3+ goals
66%
San José 1+ goals
32%
San José 2+ goals
6%
San José 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
98%
San José (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 40 matches

San José away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.50 + San José defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.50

San José attack 0.25 + Flamengo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Flamengo scores more
92%
level
6%
San José scores more
2%

Flamengo at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Flamengo 6–1 San José

Flamengo beat San José 6-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.