Flamengo 5–0 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Flamengo

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza EC

6/1/2025

Serie A · Round 11Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Flamengo59%

×Draw22%

Fortaleza EC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.95

Flamengo

1.86

Fortaleza EC

0.95

Flamengo creates 96% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Flamengo

1.60

Fortaleza EC

0.97

allows per match

Flamengo

0.93

Fortaleza EC

2.12

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Flamengo+0.45scores more

Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

81%

Flamengo or Fortaleza EC

78%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

41%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

34%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

84%

Flamengo 2+ goals

55%

Flamengo 3+ goals

28%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

61%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

25%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

76%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.60 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Flamengo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Flamengo scores more

59%

level

22%

Fortaleza EC scores more

19%

Flamengo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff