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Flamengo vs ES Tunis — FIFA Club World Cup 2019

Flamengo
Flamengo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ES Tunis
ES Tunis
6/17/2025FIFA Club World CupFIFA Club World Cup · Group Stage - 1Lincoln Financial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flamengo40%
×Draw22%
ES Tunis38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
1.82
ES Tunis
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Flamengo
2.40
ES Tunis
1.75

allows per match

Flamengo
1.80
ES Tunis
1.25

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par
ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

ES Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
62%
Flamengo or ES Tunis
78%
Draw or ES Tunis
60%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
21%
ES Tunis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
84%
Flamengo 2+ goals
54%
Flamengo 3+ goals
27%
ES Tunis 1+ goals
83%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
53%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
51%
ES Tunis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.40 + ES Tunis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

ES Tunis attack 1.75 + Flamengo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Flamengo scores more
40%
level
22%
ES Tunis scores more
38%

Flamengo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo vs ES Tunis

Flamengo beat ES Tunis 2-0 in FIFA Club World Cup on June 17, 2025.

The match was played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.