Flamengo 3–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Flamengo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

Wallace Yan 83'

Danilo 65'

Bruno Henrique 62'

Pedro Neto 13'

6/20/2025

FIFA Club World Cup · Group Stage - 2Lincoln Financial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flamengo36%

×Draw22%

Chelsea42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.83

Flamengo

1.67

Chelsea

1.83

Chelsea creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Flamengo

2.33

Chelsea

2.00

allows per match

Flamengo

1.67

Chelsea

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

58%

Flamengo or Chelsea

78%

Draw or Chelsea

64%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

18%

Chelsea wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

81%

Flamengo 2+ goals

50%

Flamengo 3+ goals

23%

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

46%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Chelsea away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.33 + Chelsea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chelsea attack 2.00 + Flamengo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Flamengo scores more

36%

level

22%

Chelsea scores more

42%

Chelsea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

G. Plata

Flamengo · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

13'

23'

45+2'

56'

Bruno Henrique← G. de Arrascaeta

62'

Bruno Henrique↳ G. Plata

64'

N. Jackson← L. Delap

64'

R. Lavia← R. James

65'

Danilo↳ Bruno Henrique

68'

Nicolas Jackson

74'

Gerson

82'

Wallace Yan← Gerson

82'

G. Varela← Wesley

82'

Marc Guiu← C. Palmer

82'

N. Madueke← E. Fernández

83'

Wallace Yan↳ G. Plata

85'

Erick Pulgar

90+2'

Gonzalo Plata

90'

Michael← G. Plata

90'

Pedro← Luiz Araújo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoChelsea

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots11

8Corners5

15Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots11

9On Target4

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

437Total Passes410

382Accurate Passes361

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0