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Flamengo SP vs Paulista — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paulista
Paulista
Unknown 83'
8/17/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Flamengo SP29%
×Draw27%
Paulista44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.07
Paulista
1.40

Paulista creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Paulista
1.90

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Paulista
0.40

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Paulista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Paulista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
56%
Flamengo SP or Paulista
73%
Draw or Paulista
71%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
11%
Paulista wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
66%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
29%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
9%
Paulista 1+ goals
75%
Paulista 2+ goals
41%
Paulista 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
39%
Paulista (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Paulista away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Paulista defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Paulista attack 1.90 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
29%
level
27%
Paulista scores more
44%

Paulista at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Flamengo SP 0–0 Paulista

Flamengo SP and Paulista drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on August 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.