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Flamengo SP vs Colorado Caieiras — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Colorado Caieiras
Colorado Caieiras
Alex 88'
L. Barros 61'
Marcelo 34'
Junior 2'
6/22/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Flamengo SP51%
×Draw27%
Colorado Caieiras22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.42
Colorado Caieiras
0.84

Flamengo SP creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Colorado Caieiras
0.80

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Colorado Caieiras
1.10

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Colorado Caieiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
78%
Flamengo SP or Colorado Caieiras
73%
Draw or Colorado Caieiras
49%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
25%
Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
76%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
41%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
17%
Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals
57%
Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals
21%
Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
69%
Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Colorado Caieiras away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Colorado Caieiras defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Colorado Caieiras attack 0.80 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
51%
level
27%
Colorado Caieiras scores more
22%

Flamengo SP at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Junior
34'
Marcelo
61'
L. Barros
88'
Alex

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP vs Colorado Caieiras

Flamengo SP beat Colorado Caieiras 4-0 in Paulista Série B on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Junior (2'), Marcelo (34'), L. Barros (61'), Alex (88').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.