Flamengo SP U20 0–2 XV de Jaú U20: Result & Stats

Flamengo SP U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

XV de Jaú U20

J. Romero 61'

Caio 7'

7/3/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2029%

×Draw27%

XV de Jaú U2044%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo SP U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Jaú U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.34

Flamengo SP U20

1.04

XV de Jaú U20

1.34

XV de Jaú U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.13

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20

1.00

XV de Jaú U20

1.55

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20

1.13

XV de Jaú U20

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw

56%

Flamengo SP U20 or XV de Jaú U20

73%

Draw or XV de Jaú U20

71%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+

11%

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals

65%

Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals

28%

Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals

9%

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

74%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

39%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)

40%

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more

29%

level

27%

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

44%

XV de Jaú U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Caio

61'

J. Romero

65'

Benjamim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff