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Flamengo SP U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portuguesa Santista U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
Unknown 88', 72', 44'
7/20/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2054%
×Draw24%
Portuguesa Santista U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.76
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.06

Flamengo SP U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.00

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Portuguesa Santista U20
2.52

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
77%
Flamengo SP U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20
76%
Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20
46%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
30%
Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
83%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
52%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
26%
Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals
65%
Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals
29%
Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
70%
Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
54%
level
24%
Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more
23%

Flamengo SP U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
72'
88'
90+4'
F. Ruan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20

Flamengo SP U20 beat Portuguesa Santista U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 20, 2025.

Goals: ? (44', 72', 88').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.