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Flamengo SP U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Unknown 27'
Unknown 49'
7/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2049%
×Draw27%
Mauá U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.39
Mauá U20
0.87

Flamengo SP U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
76%
Flamengo SP U20 or Mauá U20
73%
Draw or Mauá U20
51%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
24%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
75%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
40%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
16%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
58%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
22%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
49%
level
27%
Mauá U20 scores more
24%

Flamengo SP U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
49'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP U20 vs Mauá U20

Flamengo SP U20 and Mauá U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (27', 49').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.