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Flamengo SP U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
A. Chila 83'
Gabriel Silva 19'
Maurinho 8'
8/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2028%
×Draw26%
Ibrachina U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.08
Ibrachina U20
1.48

Ibrachina U20 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
54%
Flamengo SP U20 or Ibrachina U20
74%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
72%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
11%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
66%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
29%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
10%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
77%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
43%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
37%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
28%
level
26%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
46%

Ibrachina U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Maurinho
19'
Gabriel Silva
83'
A. Chila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flamengo SP U20 0 – 3 Ibrachina U20

Ibrachina U20 beat Flamengo SP U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 6, 2025.

Goals: Maurinho (8'), Gabriel Silva (19'), A. Chila (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.