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Flamengo SP U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
Preview
18:00
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
36%
Flamengo SP U20
model favours
36%28%36%

Flamengo SP U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2036%
×Draw28%
Capivariano U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.21
Capivariano U20
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
64%
Flamengo SP U20 or Capivariano U20
72%
Draw or Capivariano U20
64%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
15%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
70%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
34%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
12%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
70%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
34%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
36%
level
28%
Capivariano U20 scores more
36%

Flamengo SP U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Flamengo SP U20 sit 30, Capivariano U20 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDLLW
U20
WDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Flamengo SP U20 host Capivariano U20

August 21, 2026: Flamengo SP U20 take on Capivariano U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.