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Capivariano U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
Salomao 85'
Joao Vitor 56'
Lucas Rabello 30'
6/27/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2065%
×Draw19%
Flamengo SP U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
2.26
Flamengo SP U20
1.03

Capivariano U20 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Flamengo SP U20
0.88

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Flamengo SP U20
2.88

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
84%
Capivariano U20 or Flamengo SP U20
81%
Draw or Flamengo SP U20
35%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
42%
Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
89%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
66%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
39%
Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
64%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
28%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.26

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.88 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
65%
level
19%
Flamengo SP U20 scores more
16%

Capivariano U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Lucas Rabello
39'
56'
Joao Vitor
85'
Salomao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Capivariano U20 3–0 Flamengo SP U20

Capivariano U20 beat Flamengo SP U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 27, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Rabello (30'), Joao Vitor (56'), Salomao (85').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo.