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Flamengo SP U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
Francisco 45+4'
J. Pedro 85'
Victor 40'
Marcos Piovezan 13'
6/1/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamengo SP U2047%
×Draw26%
Bandeirante U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP U20
1.47
Bandeirante U20
1.06

Flamengo SP U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.00
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

Flamengo SP U20
1.13
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Flamengo SP U20 or draw
73%
Flamengo SP U20 or Bandeirante U20
74%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
53%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
23%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
77%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
43%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
18%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
65%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
29%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP U20 attack 1.00 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flamengo SP U20 scores more
47%
level
26%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
27%

Flamengo SP U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flamengo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Marcos Piovezan
32'
P. Gigante
40'
Victor
45+4'
Francisco
85'
J. Pedro
89'
Luan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP U20 vs Bandeirante U20

Bandeirante U20 beat Flamengo SP U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Marcos Piovezan (13'), Victor (40'), Francisco (45+4'), J. Pedro (85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.