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Flamengo RJ U17 vs Vitoria U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
FT
3 – 2
Vitoria U17
Vitoria U17
7/8/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1759%
×Draw21%
Vitoria U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo RJ U17
2.09
Vitoria U17
1.16

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17
2.18
Vitoria U17
1.00

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17
1.32
Vitoria U17
2.00

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par
Vitoria U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Vitoria U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw
79%
Flamengo RJ U17 or Vitoria U17
79%
Draw or Vitoria U17
41%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
36%
Vitoria U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
88%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
62%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
34%
Vitoria U17 1+ goals
69%
Vitoria U17 2+ goals
32%
Vitoria U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
74%
Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Vitoria U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 2.18 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vitoria U17 attack 1.00 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
59%
level
21%
Vitoria U17 scores more
21%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo RJ U17 vs Vitoria U17

Flamengo RJ U17 beat Vitoria U17 3-2 in Brasileiro U17 on July 8, 2026.