Flamengo RJ U17 4–1 Goias U17: Result & Stats

Flamengo RJ U17

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Goias U17

D. Telles 83'

J. de Barros 79', 59' (pen)

G. Pastri 32'

Raykkonen 3'

7/23/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 4Estádio da Gávea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1777%

×Draw13%

Goias U1710%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo RJ U17Expected goals in this matchGoias U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.09

1.06

Flamengo RJ U17

3.09

Goias U17

1.06

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 192% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

0.80

1.32

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17

2.18

Goias U17

0.80

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17

1.32

Goias U17

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Goias U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Goias U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw

90%

Flamengo RJ U17 or Goias U17

87%

Draw or Goias U17

23%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

57%

Goias U17 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

95%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

81%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

58%

Goias U17 1+ goals

65%

Goias U17 2+ goals

29%

Goias U17 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

88%

Goias U17 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Goias U17 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 2.18 + Goias U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.09

Goias U17 attack 0.80 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

77%

level

13%

Goias U17 scores more

10%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Raykkonen

32'

G. Pastri

59'

J. de BarrosPenalty

79'

J. de Barros

83'

D. Telles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff