Flamengo RJ U17 1–1 Fluminense U17: Result & Stats

Flamengo RJ U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fluminense U17

C. J. Lana de Andrade 35'

K. Samuel 41'

9/19/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finalsEstádio da Gávea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1748%

×Draw23%

Fluminense U1730%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo RJ U17Expected goals in this matchFluminense U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.41

Flamengo RJ U17

1.84

Fluminense U17

1.41

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

2.18

creates per match

1.50

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17

2.18

Fluminense U17

1.50

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17

1.32

Fluminense U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw

70%

Flamengo RJ U17 or Fluminense U17

77%

Draw or Fluminense U17

52%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

26%

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

84%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

55%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

28%

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

76%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

41%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

62%

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 2.18 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

48%

level

23%

Fluminense U17 scores more

30%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

C. J. Lana de Andrade

41'

K. Samuel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff