Flamengo RJ U17 1–0 Ceara U17: Result & Stats

Flamengo RJ U17

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceara U17

D. Telles 37'

8/14/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 7Estádio da Gávea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1755%

×Draw26%

Ceara U1719%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo RJ U17Expected goals in this matchCeara U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.76

Flamengo RJ U17

1.49

Ceara U17

0.76

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

2.18

creates per match

0.20

1.32

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17

2.18

Ceara U17

0.20

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17

1.32

Ceara U17

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Ceara U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Ceara U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw

81%

Flamengo RJ U17 or Ceara U17

74%

Draw or Ceara U17

45%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

28%

Ceara U17 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

77%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

44%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

19%

Ceara U17 1+ goals

53%

Ceara U17 2+ goals

18%

Ceara U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

74%

Ceara U17 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Ceara U17 away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 2.18 + Ceara U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ceara U17 attack 0.20 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

55%

level

26%

Ceara U17 scores more

19%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

D. Telles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff