Flamengo FBC W 3–0 Defensores W: Result & Stats

Flamengo FBC W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Defensores W

5/21/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo FBC W79%

×Draw13%

Defensores W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo FBC WExpected goals in this matchDefensores W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.80

Flamengo FBC W

2.90

Defensores W

0.80

Flamengo FBC W creates 262% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

0.40

1.20

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Flamengo FBC W

2.40

Defensores W

0.40

allows per match

Flamengo FBC W

1.20

Defensores W

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Defensores W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo FBC W ↓

Defensores W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Flamengo FBC W or draw

92%

Flamengo FBC W or Defensores W

87%

Draw or Defensores W

21%

Winning margin

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

60%

Defensores W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

94%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

78%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

54%

Defensores W 1+ goals

55%

Defensores W 2+ goals

19%

Defensores W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

91%

Defensores W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo FBC W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Defensores W away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo FBC W attack 2.40 + Defensores W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.90

Defensores W attack 0.40 + Flamengo FBC W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Flamengo FBC W scores more

79%

level

13%

Defensores W scores more

8%

Flamengo FBC W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Flamengo FBC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff