Flamengo FBC W 3–0 Carlos Mannucci W

Flamengo FBC W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carlos Mannucci W

3/22/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo FBC W88%

×Draw8%

Carlos Mannucci W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo FBC WExpected goals in this matchCarlos Mannucci W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.40

0.60

Flamengo FBC W

3.40

Carlos Mannucci W

0.60

Flamengo FBC W creates 467% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.40

creates per match

0.00

1.20

allows per match

4.40

creates per match

Flamengo FBC W

2.40

Carlos Mannucci W

0.00

allows per match

Flamengo FBC W

1.20

Carlos Mannucci W

4.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo FBC W ↓

Carlos Mannucci W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Flamengo FBC W or draw

96%

Flamengo FBC W or Carlos Mannucci W

92%

Draw or Carlos Mannucci W

12%

Winning margin

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

72%

Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

96%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

84%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

64%

Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals

45%

Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals

12%

Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

96%

Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo FBC W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Carlos Mannucci W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo FBC W attack 2.40 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.40

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.00 + Flamengo FBC W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Flamengo FBC W scores more

88%

level

8%

Carlos Mannucci W scores more

4%

Flamengo FBC W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Flamengo FBC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff