Flamengo FBC W vs Atl. Andahuaylas W

Flamengo FBC W

Preview

18:00

Atl. Andahuaylas W

7/26/2026

Liga Women · Clausura - 1

57%

Flamengo FBC W

model favours

57%22%21%

1–1

likely score

59%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo FBC W57%

×Draw22%

Atl. Andahuaylas W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo FBC WExpected goals in this matchAtl. Andahuaylas W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.10

Flamengo FBC W

1.95

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.10

Flamengo FBC W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Flamengo FBC W

2.40

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.00

allows per match

Flamengo FBC W

1.20

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Atl. Andahuaylas W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo FBC W ↓

Atl. Andahuaylas W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Flamengo FBC W or draw

79%

Flamengo FBC W or Atl. Andahuaylas W

78%

Draw or Atl. Andahuaylas W

43%

Winning margin

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

33%

Atl. Andahuaylas W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

86%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

58%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

31%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 1+ goals

67%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 2+ goals

30%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

73%

Atl. Andahuaylas W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo FBC W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Atl. Andahuaylas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo FBC W attack 2.40 + Atl. Andahuaylas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Atl. Andahuaylas W attack 1.00 + Flamengo FBC W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Flamengo FBC W scores more

57%

level

22%

Atl. Andahuaylas W scores more

21%

Flamengo FBC W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Flamengo FBC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

WDDWL

W

DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff