Atl. Andahuaylas W 2–1 Flamengo FBC W

Atl. Andahuaylas W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Flamengo FBC W

3/15/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atl. Andahuaylas W73%

×Draw17%

Flamengo FBC W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atl. Andahuaylas WExpected goals in this matchFlamengo FBC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.81

Atl. Andahuaylas W

2.42

Flamengo FBC W

0.81

Atl. Andahuaylas W creates 199% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

0.80

0.83

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Atl. Andahuaylas W

1.83

Flamengo FBC W

0.80

allows per match

Atl. Andahuaylas W

0.83

Flamengo FBC W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atl. Andahuaylas W+0.00on par

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atl. Andahuaylas W ↓

Flamengo FBC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atl. Andahuaylas W or draw

89%

Atl. Andahuaylas W or Flamengo FBC W

83%

Draw or Flamengo FBC W

27%

Winning margin

Atl. Andahuaylas W wins by 2+

50%

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atl. Andahuaylas W 1+ goals

91%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 2+ goals

69%

Atl. Andahuaylas W 3+ goals

43%

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

56%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

19%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atl. Andahuaylas W (draw refunded)

87%

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atl. Andahuaylas W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Flamengo FBC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atl. Andahuaylas W attack 1.83 + Flamengo FBC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Flamengo FBC W attack 0.80 + Atl. Andahuaylas W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Atl. Andahuaylas W scores more

73%

level

17%

Flamengo FBC W scores more

11%

Atl. Andahuaylas W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Atl. Andahuaylas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff