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Flamengo FBC W vs Alianza Lima W — Liga Women 2026

Flamengo FBC W
Flamengo FBC W
Preview
18:00
Alianza Lima W
Alianza Lima W
8/6/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 3
53%
Flamengo FBC W
model favours
53%24%22%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo FBC W53%
×Draw24%
Alianza Lima W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo FBC W
1.70
Alianza Lima W
1.01

Flamengo FBC W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Flamengo FBC W
2.40
Alianza Lima W
0.83

allows per match

Flamengo FBC W
1.20
Alianza Lima W
1.00

finishing

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par
Alianza Lima W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo FBC W ↓

Alianza Lima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Flamengo FBC W or draw
78%
Flamengo FBC W or Alianza Lima W
76%
Draw or Alianza Lima W
47%

Winning margin

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+
29%
Alianza Lima W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals
82%
Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals
51%
Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals
24%
Alianza Lima W 1+ goals
64%
Alianza Lima W 2+ goals
27%
Alianza Lima W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)
70%
Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo FBC W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima W away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo FBC W attack 2.40 + Alianza Lima W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Alianza Lima W attack 0.83 + Flamengo FBC W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flamengo FBC W scores more
53%
level
24%
Alianza Lima W scores more
22%

Flamengo FBC W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flamengo FBC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WDDWL
W
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Flamengo FBC W host Alianza Lima W

August 6, 2026: Flamengo FBC W take on Alianza Lima W in Liga Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.