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Alianza Lima W vs Flamengo FBC W — Liga Women 2026

Alianza Lima W
Alianza Lima W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Flamengo FBC W
Flamengo FBC W
3/28/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alianza Lima W85%
×Draw10%
Flamengo FBC W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima W
3.35
Flamengo FBC W
0.76

Alianza Lima W creates 341% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima W
3.71
Flamengo FBC W
0.80

allows per match

Alianza Lima W
0.71
Flamengo FBC W
3.00

finishing

Alianza Lima W+0.00on par
Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima W ↓

Flamengo FBC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Alianza Lima W or draw
95%
Alianza Lima W or Flamengo FBC W
90%
Draw or Flamengo FBC W
15%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima W wins by 2+
68%
Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Alianza Lima W 1+ goals
96%
Alianza Lima W 2+ goals
84%
Alianza Lima W 3+ goals
63%
Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals
53%
Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals
18%
Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima W (draw refunded)
94%
Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Flamengo FBC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima W attack 3.71 + Flamengo FBC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.35

Flamengo FBC W attack 0.80 + Alianza Lima W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Alianza Lima W scores more
85%
level
10%
Flamengo FBC W scores more
5%

Alianza Lima W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Alianza Lima W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Lima W vs Flamengo FBC W

Alianza Lima W beat Flamengo FBC W 5-0 in Liga Women on March 28, 2026.