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Flamengo BA vs Jacobina — Baiano - 2 2019

Flamengo BA
Flamengo BA
FT
1 – 0
Jacobina
Jacobina
6/12/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio 2 de Julho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo BA53%
×Draw28%
Jacobina19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo BA
1.39
Jacobina
0.72

Flamengo BA creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Flamengo BA
1.40
Jacobina
1.44

allows per match

Flamengo BA
0.00
Jacobina
1.38

finishing

Flamengo BA+0.00on par
Jacobina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo BA ↓

Jacobina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Flamengo BA or draw
81%
Flamengo BA or Jacobina
72%
Draw or Jacobina
47%

Winning margin

Flamengo BA wins by 2+
26%
Jacobina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flamengo BA 1+ goals
75%
Flamengo BA 2+ goals
40%
Flamengo BA 3+ goals
16%
Jacobina 1+ goals
51%
Jacobina 2+ goals
16%
Jacobina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Flamengo BA (draw refunded)
73%
Jacobina (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo BA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

Jacobina away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo BA attack 1.40 + Jacobina defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Jacobina attack 1.44 + Flamengo BA defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flamengo BA scores more
53%
level
28%
Jacobina scores more
19%

Flamengo BA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flamengo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Flamengo BA 1–0 Jacobina

Flamengo BA beat Jacobina 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio 2 de Julho in Guanambí, Bahia.