Flamengo BA 4–0 ABPN Canaã: Result & Stats

Flamengo BA

FT

4 – 0

ABPN Canaã

6/26/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio 2 de Julho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flamengo BA70%

×Draw23%

ABPN Canaã7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo BAExpected goals in this matchABPN Canaã

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.32

Flamengo BA

1.61

ABPN Canaã

0.32

Flamengo BA creates 403% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

0.64

0.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Flamengo BA

1.40

ABPN Canaã

0.64

allows per match

Flamengo BA

0.00

ABPN Canaã

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo BA+0.00on par

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo BA ↓

ABPN Canaã →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Flamengo BA or draw

93%

Flamengo BA or ABPN Canaã

77%

Draw or ABPN Canaã

30%

Winning margin

Flamengo BA wins by 2+

40%

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Flamengo BA 1+ goals

80%

Flamengo BA 2+ goals

48%

Flamengo BA 3+ goals

22%

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

27%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

4%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Flamengo BA (draw refunded)

91%

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo BA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo BA attack 1.40 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Flamengo BA defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flamengo BA scores more

70%

level

23%

ABPN Canaã scores more

7%

Flamengo BA at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flamengo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff