Fløya 3–0 Ulfstind: Result & Stats

Fløya

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ulfstind

N. K. Olsen 90'

Y. Johansen 5'

O. Olsen 2'

4/28/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 4Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya63%

×Draw17%

Ulfstind19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FløyaExpected goals in this matchUlfstind

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.52

Fløya

2.79

Ulfstind

1.52

Fløya creates 84% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

2.74

creates per match

1.77

1.28

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Fløya

2.74

Ulfstind

1.77

allows per match

Fløya

1.28

Ulfstind

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par

Ulfstind+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Ulfstind →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Fløya or draw

81%

Fløya or Ulfstind

83%

Draw or Ulfstind

37%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+

43%

Ulfstind wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals

94%

Fløya 2+ goals

76%

Fløya 3+ goals

52%

Ulfstind 1+ goals

78%

Ulfstind 2+ goals

45%

Ulfstind 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)

77%

Ulfstind (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Ulfstind away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + Ulfstind defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.79

Ulfstind attack 1.77 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fløya scores more

63%

level

17%

Ulfstind scores more

19%

Fløya at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

O. Olsen

5'

Y. Johansen

90'

N. K. Olsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff