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Fløya vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Fløya
Fløya
FT
1 – 1
Senja
Senja
8/1/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fløya44%
×Draw21%
Senja35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
2.10
Senja
1.86

Fløya creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fløya
1.10
Senja
0.57

allows per match

Fløya
3.15
Senja
3.10

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
65%
Fløya or Senja
79%
Draw or Senja
56%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
25%
Senja wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
88%
Fløya 2+ goals
62%
Fløya 3+ goals
35%
Senja 1+ goals
84%
Senja 2+ goals
55%
Senja 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
56%
Senja (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 1.10 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.10

Senja attack 0.57 + Fløya defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fløya scores more
44%
level
21%
Senja scores more
35%

Fløya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fløya vs Senja

Fløya and Senja drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.