Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fløya vs Innstranden — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Fløya
Fløya
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Innstranden
Innstranden
8/25/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 18Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya65%
×Draw18%
Innstranden17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
2.45
Innstranden
1.18

Fløya creates 108% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.74
Innstranden
1.08

allows per match

Fløya
1.28
Innstranden
2.15

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Innstranden+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Innstranden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
83%
Fløya or Innstranden
82%
Draw or Innstranden
35%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
43%
Innstranden wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
91%
Fløya 2+ goals
70%
Fløya 3+ goals
44%
Innstranden 1+ goals
69%
Innstranden 2+ goals
33%
Innstranden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
79%
Innstranden (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Innstranden away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + Innstranden defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.45

Innstranden attack 1.08 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fløya scores more
65%
level
18%
Innstranden scores more
17%

Fløya at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Fløya 5–0 Innstranden

Fløya beat Innstranden 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.