Fløya 2–0 Hammerfest IF Stein: Result & Stats

Fløya

FT

2 – 0

Hammerfest IF Stein

4/15/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 2Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya90%

×Draw7%

Hammerfest IF Stein3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FløyaExpected goals in this matchHammerfest IF Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

0.68

Fløya

3.83

Hammerfest IF Stein

0.68

Fløya creates 463% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

2.74

creates per match

0.08

1.28

allows per match

4.92

creates per match

Fløya

2.74

Hammerfest IF Stein

0.08

allows per match

Fløya

1.28

Hammerfest IF Stein

4.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par

Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Hammerfest IF Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Fløya or draw

97%

Fløya or Hammerfest IF Stein

93%

Draw or Hammerfest IF Stein

10%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+

76%

Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals

98%

Fløya 2+ goals

88%

Fløya 3+ goals

71%

Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals

49%

Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals

15%

Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)

97%

Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Hammerfest IF Stein away — creates 0.08, concedes 4.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.92 → ÷2 → 3.83

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.08 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Fløya scores more

90%

level

7%

Hammerfest IF Stein scores more

3%

Fløya at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff