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FKS Ukmergė vs TransINVEST Vilnius — Cup 2020

FKS Ukmergė
FKS Ukmergė
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilniusadvanced
5/7/2022CupCup · Round of 32Ukmergės stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FKS Ukmergė3%
×Draw7%
TransINVEST Vilnius91%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FKS Ukmergė
0.60
TransINVEST Vilnius
3.80

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 533% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

FKS Ukmergė
0.80
TransINVEST Vilnius
6.20

allows per match

FKS Ukmergė
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.40

finishing

FKS Ukmergė+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FKS Ukmergė ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–210%
0–312%
0–412%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

FKS Ukmergė or draw
9%
FKS Ukmergė or TransINVEST Vilnius
93%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
97%

Winning margin

FKS Ukmergė wins by 2+
1%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
77%

Team goals

FKS Ukmergė 1+ goals
45%
FKS Ukmergė 2+ goals
12%
FKS Ukmergė 3+ goals
2%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
98%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
88%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

FKS Ukmergė (draw refunded)
3%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FKS Ukmergė at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 6.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FKS Ukmergė attack 0.80 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.60

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 6.20 + FKS Ukmergė defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 3.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

FKS Ukmergė scores more
3%
level
7%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
91%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKS Ukmergė 0 – 2 TransINVEST Vilnius

TransINVEST Vilnius beat FKS Ukmergė 2-0 in Cup on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Ukmergės stadionas in Ukmergė.