FKS Ukmergė 0–3 Suduva Marijampole: Result & Stats

FKS Ukmergė

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Suduva Marijampole

5/9/2023

Cup · Round of 32Ukmergės stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FKS Ukmergė7%

×Draw17%

Suduva Marijampole76%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FKS UkmergėExpected goals in this matchSuduva Marijampole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.46

2.09

FKS Ukmergė

0.46

Suduva Marijampole

2.09

Suduva Marijampole creates 354% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

0.80

creates per match

2.78

1.40

allows per match

0.11

creates per match

FKS Ukmergė

0.80

Suduva Marijampole

2.78

allows per match

FKS Ukmergė

1.40

Suduva Marijampole

0.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FKS Ukmergė+0.00on par

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FKS Ukmergė ↓

Suduva Marijampole →

0–08%

0–116%

0–217%

0–312%

0–46%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FKS Ukmergė or draw

24%

FKS Ukmergė or Suduva Marijampole

83%

Draw or Suduva Marijampole

93%

Winning margin

FKS Ukmergė wins by 2+

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

FKS Ukmergė 1+ goals

37%

FKS Ukmergė 2+ goals

FKS Ukmergė 3+ goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

88%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

62%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

FKS Ukmergė (draw refunded)

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FKS Ukmergė at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FKS Ukmergė attack 0.80 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.46

Suduva Marijampole attack 2.78 + FKS Ukmergė defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

FKS Ukmergė scores more

level

17%

Suduva Marijampole scores more

76%

Suduva Marijampole at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff