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FKS Ukmergė vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

FKS Ukmergė
FKS Ukmergė
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiaiadvanced
5/28/2024CupCup · Round of 16Ukmergės stadiono dirbtinės dangos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FKS Ukmergė15%
×Draw20%
Džiugas Telšiai65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FKS Ukmergė
0.90
Džiugas Telšiai
2.10

Džiugas Telšiai creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

FKS Ukmergė
0.80
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

FKS Ukmergė
1.40
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

FKS Ukmergė+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FKS Ukmergė ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FKS Ukmergė or draw
35%
FKS Ukmergė or Džiugas Telšiai
80%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
85%

Winning margin

FKS Ukmergė wins by 2+
5%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

FKS Ukmergė 1+ goals
59%
FKS Ukmergė 2+ goals
23%
FKS Ukmergė 3+ goals
6%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
88%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
62%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

FKS Ukmergė (draw refunded)
19%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FKS Ukmergė at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FKS Ukmergė attack 0.80 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + FKS Ukmergė defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FKS Ukmergė scores more
15%
level
20%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
65%

Džiugas Telšiai at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FKS Ukmergė 1–2 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat FKS Ukmergė 2-1 in Cup on May 28, 2024.

The match was played at Ukmergės stadiono dirbtinės dangos in Ukmergė.