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FK Zlatibor vs Takovo — Srpska Liga - West 2019

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
1 – 0
Takovo
Takovo
5/22/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 28Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

FK Zlatibor47%
×Draw29%
Takovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.29
Takovo
0.85

FK Zlatibor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 101 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.33
Takovo
0.80

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.91
Takovo
1.25

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Takovo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Takovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
75%
FK Zlatibor or Takovo
71%
Draw or Takovo
53%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
22%
Takovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
72%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
37%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
14%
Takovo 1+ goals
57%
Takovo 2+ goals
21%
Takovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
66%
Takovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Takovo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.25 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.33 + Takovo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Takovo attack 0.80 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
47%
level
29%
Takovo scores more
25%

FK Zlatibor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: FK Zlatibor 1–0 Takovo

FK Zlatibor beat Takovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija in Zlatibor.