FK Zlatibor 6–0 Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

FK Zlatibor

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

11/18/2023

Srpska Liga - West · West - 14Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FK Zlatibor53%

×Draw25%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK ZlatiborExpected goals in this matchSloga Petrovac na Mlavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.90

FK Zlatibor

1.58

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

0.90

FK Zlatibor creates 76% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.91

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

FK Zlatibor

1.33

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

0.88

allows per match

FK Zlatibor

0.91

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw

79%

FK Zlatibor or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

75%

Draw or Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi

47%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+

28%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals

79%

FK Zlatibor 2+ goals

47%

FK Zlatibor 3+ goals

21%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 1+ goals

59%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 2+ goals

23%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)

71%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.83 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.33 + Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi attack 0.88 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more

53%

level

25%

Sloga Petrovac na Mlavi scores more

21%

FK Zlatibor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff