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FK Zlatibor vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
2 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
3/18/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Stadion Švajcarija (Zlatibor)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Zlatibor55%
×Draw26%
Sindjelic Beograd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.51
Sindjelic Beograd
0.77

FK Zlatibor creates 96% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.23
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.80
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
81%
FK Zlatibor or Sindjelic Beograd
74%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
45%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
28%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
78%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
44%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
19%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
54%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
18%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
74%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.23 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
55%
level
26%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
19%

FK Zlatibor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zlatibor vs Sindjelic Beograd

FK Zlatibor beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija (Zlatibor).