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FK Zlatibor vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
8/22/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 3Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Zlatibor37%
×Draw32%
Mladost Novi Sad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.00
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

FK Zlatibor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.23
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.80
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
69%
FK Zlatibor or Mladost Novi Sad
68%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
63%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
14%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
63%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
26%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
8%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
59%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
22%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
54%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.23 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
37%
level
32%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
31%

FK Zlatibor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zlatibor vs Mladost Novi Sad

FK Zlatibor and Mladost Novi Sad drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija in Zlatibor.