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FK Zlatibor vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
3 – 0
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
6/2/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 30Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

FK Zlatibor59%
×Draw24%
Mihajlovac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.65
Mihajlovac
0.76

FK Zlatibor creates 117% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.33
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.91
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
83%
FK Zlatibor or Mihajlovac
76%
Draw or Mihajlovac
41%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
32%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
81%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
49%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
23%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
53%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
18%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
77%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.33 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
59%
level
24%
Mihajlovac scores more
17%

FK Zlatibor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: FK Zlatibor 3–0 Mihajlovac

FK Zlatibor beat Mihajlovac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija in Zlatibor.